In a notable diplomatic exchange, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin have shared “congratulatory letters” as the Russian leader prepares for a visit to Beijing. This visit comes shortly after Donald Trump concluded a significant summit in China. According to Chinese media, Xi emphasized the strengthening of the strategic partnership between China and Russia, a relationship that marks its 30th anniversary this year. The Kremlin has confirmed that Putin will arrive in China on Tuesday evening, with a meeting scheduled with Xi on Wednesday morning. Discussions are expected to cover various aspects of the bilateral relationship, including the potential Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline project.
The consecutive visits of the Russian and U.S. leaders to China have drawn considerable international attention. Analysts have noted the rarity of such diplomatic engagements occurring in quick succession in the post-Cold War era. China’s deepening ties with Russia have been a particular point of concern for Western nations, especially following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Observers from the West argue that China’s economic and diplomatic support has been pivotal in sustaining the conflict. The frequent meetings between Xi and Putin, which have happened more than 40 times, exceed Xi’s interactions with Western leaders, highlighting the close bond between China and Russia.
Trade between the two countries has reached unprecedented levels since 2022, with China accounting for over a quarter of Russia’s exports. China’s substantial purchases of Russian crude oil have provided significant financial resources for Moscow amid its ongoing war in Ukraine, totaling more than $367 billion in fossil fuels. These transactions have bolstered China’s energy security, crucial given the disruption of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz due to the Middle East crisis.
Notably, the issues of the Ukraine conflict and the Sino-Russian relationship appeared to receive limited attention during Trump’s discussions with Xi last week. While the Chinese statement briefly mentioned the “Ukraine crisis,” the U.S. statement omitted it entirely. Instead, the focus of the talks was on trade, Taiwan, and the Middle Eastern conflict, with Trump highlighting a shared understanding with China on the importance of reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Xi cautioned Trump regarding Taiwan, warning of potential conflict if mishandled. Trump left China undecided about a substantial arms deal with Taiwan, which, if halted, would be a significant diplomatic win for Beijing.
Joseph Webster, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, suggested that Taiwan might be an underlying theme of the upcoming Xi-Putin meeting. He speculated that China could be seeking additional fossil fuel agreements with Russia to secure its energy supply in the event of a future conflict. Expanding the capacity of Russian oil pipelines to China could enhance Beijing’s energy security in a potential Taiwan crisis. Russia is eager for China to progress with the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, which would significantly increase gas transport capacity between the two nations.